Bitcoin climbed roughly 4% back above $61,000 on July 2 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks had eased, tempering expectations of further hawkish policy.
The rebound came in sharp contrast to a broad risk-off move in Asian equities, where South Korea's Kospi dropped nearly 8% on renewed AI chip demand concerns. For the first time in weeks, crypto moved independently of a stock-market sell-off rather than amplifying it.
The reaction matters because it tests whether Bitcoin's macro correlation is beginning to break down at a moment when the market needs a new narrative beyond ETF flows. The risk is that a single Fed comment does the work only until Friday's jobs report either confirms or contradicts the softer inflation read, at which point the correlation likely snaps back one way or the other.
Watch Friday's June non-farm payrolls print, the ETF flow numbers early next week, and whether Warsh maintains this tone in his next scheduled remarks.
