The rate stayed at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot flipped: the year-end median moved higher than it was in March, and 17 of 18 committee members see inflation risks skewed to the upside. This was the first meeting led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and markets are reacting to that outcome rather than to the rate pause itself.
The geopolitical backdrop turned out less clean than it looked a week ago. The US-Iran deal was announced on June 15, with a signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland, but the technical talks ahead of the signing were called off at the last minute amid continued fighting in Lebanon. Equities rallied on the broader de-escalation story anyway, while bitcoin kept sliding.
Spot BTC and ETH ETFs logged combined outflows as 2026 rate-cut hopes faded. At the same time, long-term holders added a large amount of BTC through June, and large wallets regained a meaningful share of supply, so the structural picture looks calmer than the daily chart suggests. The rate stayed at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot flipped: the year-end median moved higher than it was in March, and 17 of 18 committee members see inflation risks skewed to the upside. This was the first meeting led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and markets are reacting to that outcome rather than to the rate pause itself.
