Crypto Markets · Institutional View · May 28, 2026
\*Jan van Eck, CEO of one of the world's largest investment management firms, gave a candid podcast interview about the future of crypto, Bitcoin, gold, and the global economy. This is not the view of a retail investor - it is the position of someone who manages real money and is accountable for the outcome.\*
A Hard Call
Van Eck did not soften his words: the vast majority of existing crypto projects and tokens will not survive the next 5 to 10 years. Most of them, he said, have no durable competitive advantage, and the market is inevitably moving toward a winner-takes-most model - with very few spots available at the top.
VanEck has long held a similar position, with the firm maintaining that 95% of the crypto space does not make fundamental sense. What is new is that van Eck is now attaching a specific timeframe to that conviction.
Bitcoin, Gold, and the Race for Reserve Status
Bitcoin, in van Eck's view, will continue competing with gold for the status of global reserve asset. His target benchmark: a BTC market capitalization reaching roughly half of gold's - which at current market parameters implies a growth potential several times higher than current levels. This is not a casual comparison. VanEck filed one of the first Bitcoin ETF applications in the US precisely because van Eck concluded back in 2017 that Bitcoin had real potential to rival gold as a store of value.
Gold itself is also experiencing a renaissance. Against the backdrop of mounting US debt concerns, the yellow metal is gradually reclaiming its role as an alternative reserve instrument - and van Eck identifies this as a separate long-term trend, independent of the crypto market.
2026: A Weak Year by Design
The current Bitcoin correction did not catch VanEck off guard. Bitcoin operates in four-year cycles tied to its halving: three years of gains, followed by a correction in the fourth. The last halving occurred in April 2024, making 2026 precisely that fourth year.
"We are in a Bitcoin bear market. The crypto market is up today, but it is still down more than 50% from the October peak." - Jan van Eck, CNBC, March 2026
According to CryptoQuant analysts, the cycle bottom may form somewhere between June and November 2026. VanEck's public positioning suggests alignment with that view.
The GENIUS Act and Corporate Blockchains
Van Eck described the US GENIUS Act on stablecoins as one of the most important developments for the financial system as a whole - and his argument goes beyond the obvious. The law, he said, for the first time opens the door for technology companies to compete directly with banks in payments and settlements. That is a structural shift whose consequences will extend well beyond the crypto market.
At the same time, 2026 is becoming the year when large institutional capital stops observing blockchain and starts building it. JPMorgan, BNY Mellon, Cumberland, and a number of other major financial players are already actively constructing their own blockchain networks and infrastructure. This is a qualitatively different level of involvement - not buying Bitcoin as a portfolio allocation, but laying the actual rails on which real money will move.
Where VanEck Sees Opportunity
Beyond crypto, van Eck continues to back artificial intelligence and semiconductors - with a caveat: memory chip manufacturers are already showing signs of a bubble, and the firm is actively reducing exposure there. Nvidia is singled out separately and positively for its dominance in AI infrastructure. On a longer horizon, VanEck also views the Indian economy as one of the major growth stories in emerging markets.
The Debt Crisis as the Through Line
Beneath all the tactical forecasts, van Eck's most consistent message is this: the US debt crisis is not a hypothetical scenario - it is a forming reality. Rising national debt, eroding confidence in US Treasury bonds, and structural budget deficits all explain why investors are simultaneously moving toward both gold and Bitcoin as assets outside the traditional financial system. Both bets, at their core, are about the same thing - distrust of government money.
VanEck's position is clear: the market is entering a phase of hard selection. What survives will be the assets with real, demonstrable value. Everything else will be washed out - not tomorrow, but within the timeframe of a single investment cycle.
